I analysed data of more than 7000 models of smartphones, PDAs and similar gadgets. I restricted my research then to only 4096 of those, the ones released after the initial announcement of the original iPhone, circa January 2007, to observe the trends in the modern smartphone industry.
The data refers to released models, and doesn’t directly refer their sales in the market or consumer preferences.
Screens Are Getting Bigger
That’s no mystery. What was “monstrous” seven years ago now is “too small“. Whole societies are getting used to two-hands use of their smartphones, and the software is adapting too.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostp
Lets look at the average screen size. It took five years for the average screen size to get from 3 inches to 4 inches, but only two more to get to the current average of 5 inches.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostp
It took five years for the average screen size to get from 3-inch to 4-inch, but only two more to get to the current average of 5 inches.
What Is Big?
“Big” is totally subjective to a person’s likes, hand size, culture or even fashion awareness. But, observing the data divided at the 4.5-inch point, we have a better understanding of the trend.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpc
If we take a closer look at only the last two years, we see an astonishing trend towards 4.5-inch and bigger screens. Smartphones with 4.5-inch screens or more were ~10 per cent two years ago, now they represent ~80 per cent of all new models.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpc
Smartphones with 4.5-inch screens or more were ~10 per cent two years ago, now they represent ~80% of all new models
This is most likely due to manufacturers being able to create devices with smaller bezels, the need of bigger batteries and general specification warfare.
Not Only Screens…
A screen is the biggest defining item of a smartphone’s total size, but bezels around the screen are needed to grip the device, place buttons, cameras, speakers, microphones, and even some still have physical keyboards, thus adding to the overall size. Now the trend of overall size is upwards, but modern smartphones first got smaller before they got bigger again.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpc
For comparison, a 4-inch iPhone is ~72 square centimetres. Manufacturers always were driven to make mobile phones, both dumb and smart, smaller and lighter, until the software landscape was dramatically changed in 2007-2010, when a new era of computing and networking pushed them to rethink what a whole computer in a pocket should do.
Bezels Are Getting Smaller
A couple months ago we published this chart, which shed some light into a until then obscure metric for most people, the screen-to-bezel ratio of a handful of selected and popular smartphones.
Less bezels allow for bigger screens without increasing the size of the device, but, at least with today’s technology, a minimal bezel is required for usability. To add historical perspective, we can observe this ratio in percentage points, i.e: how much of the front of a smartphone is just screen.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpc
About Manufacturers
In these regards we are observing, Samsung seems to lead the pack. The original Galaxy Note, with 5.3 inches, was deemed too big,or at best a niche phone. Even started a new category named the phablet.
The average screen size of a new non-Samsung smartphone when the 5.3-inch Note was released was 3.8″
The average screen size of a new non-Samsung smartphone when the 5.3-inch Note was released was 3.8″. Less than three years later, most OEMs are making their non-phablet flagships in the 5 inches or more category.
Samsung Leads
Did Samsung skate where the puck was going? was it mere luck due to a more of a throwing spaghetti to the wall and see what sticks manoeuvre? We will never know for sure, but the data is clear: Samsung went bigger before the market went bigger.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostp
When Samsung started shipping Android smartphones, their screens sizes jumped. Their first, the I7500, was a 3.2-inch phone with a huge bezel, released on April 2009. Before Android, Samsung made tiny screens.
Apple Lags
Not implying that bigger screens are better or worse, Apple does lag in this trend. Apple started in the 3.5″ screen size when the market average was 3.2 inches, and remain there, only to get a 4″ screen iPhone when the market average was 4.3 inches, Apple went from lead to lag.
(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostp
The average smartphone screen size when the original iPhone was launched was 3.2 inches, when the iPhone 5 launched, it was 4.3 inches.
I won’t argue with rumours, so what would Apple do is not something I can’t predict, but Apple has a generally lower screen-to-bezel ratio due to hardware constraints in the iPhone such as the home button in the lower bezel, making an iPhone with a even bigger screen harder to grip with one hand, compared to a Samsung or LG device with similar screen size.
Conclusions
Smartphones and their screens are getting bigger while bezels recede. We can’t know where the trend will go in two years, but seems more likely to stabilise around 5-5.5 inches than to go back to lower than 5-inch values.
This post originally appears on Medium. It was republished here with the author’s permission. For more, you can follow Alex Barredo on Twitter here.
Comments
11 responses to “A Comprehensive Look Into The Future Of Smartphone Screen Sizes”
Noice 🙂
Galaxy note for the win!
its was interesting when i first started at my work how many comments i got about screen size, for me a galaxy note feels average and every other phome seems small.
Exactly how i feel. Love the bigger screen.
Note all the way
I can deal with the 4.3-4.5″ range, but I’ll be pissed off if we get to the point you can only get a flagship in phablets 5″+.
I completely agree, anything above 4.5 inches is just becoming inconvenient, that mammoth Acer X1 looks ridiculous at 5.7 inches…
I genuinely miss the days of monochrome phones that were about 3 inches in size. No access to the internet, games, Facebook or MMS… the main drawback being that I had no idea what friends had for breakfast.
Back when a phone was design TO MAKE CALLS MAN!
I used to have a monochrome phone with wap internet. We didn’t have data plans back then so I’d go through $20 of credit within a few days.
I remember in highschool myself and some friends had Optus SMS enabled on pre paid before it was offered. Don’t know how we managed it, but we sent stupid numbers of texts. It was a sad day when Optus enabled SMS billing and we had to pay for them 🙁
maybe this graph should factor in average pocket size.
i like how the iphone 5 dissapears in my pocket, sometimes i forget its there.
that is not the case with the galaxy 5 type phones.
i personally think the sweet spot is about 4.5-4.7