industry news
Analyst: GTA IV Will Smoke The Competition With 13 Million Copies Sold In '07
Posted by Michael McWhertor at 10:20 AM on April 4, 2008
If Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst is right, Rockstar Games and Take-Two are going to have a very merry 2008. Ernst lays out the research firm's "top 20 game unit sales and revenue" for the calendar year, projecting that Grand Theft Auto IV will kill the competition with 13 million copies sold. That would mean GTA IV's sales for the year would exceed that of the Grand Theft Auto III's lifetime to date figure and approach total sales of Vice City.
The firm pegs Wii Fit as the year's second best seller and provides estimates for 2007's other marquee titles. Wait, Final Fantasy XIII? Haha! Seriously?!
Yes, the team at Hudson Square Research puts FFXIII's sales for the year at an impressive 8 million copies. Shocking, yes, but maybe not as shocking as Square Enix's PS3 epic actually shipping this year.
Less impressive sales are projected for Metal Gear Solid 4, though, with Ernst estimating only 6 million copies sold, less than Star Wars: The Force Unleashed and Gran Turismo 5 Prologue. Other highlights include Super Smash Bros. Brawl (9 million), Wii Play (8.8 million), Gears of War 2 (7 million) and Madden NFL 09 (7.5 million).
The figures, they certainly impress if they don't entirely convince. Given the impressive rise year-to-year sales leaps the industry seems to be making, we won't be surprised if some of this pans out by year's end.
Analyst: GTA IV to Lead All Game Sales in '08 with 13M Sold [GameDaily]

Comments (AU Comments · US Comments)
There are currently no AU comments for this post.
OT79
Posted 11:15 AM 4/4/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer: Well,I'm sure the MGS4 sales will be a lot more than the MGS3 numbers,it's more appropriate to expect and compare with MGS2 sales,mostly because it's the direct sequel of this one and not a prequel like MGS3 (one of the things that scare or discourage many g
fans to buy it)and it's the conclusion of the history,plus some new people that would give it a try,I expect sales above 6 millions (just like MGS2) but I'm with you,undoubtedly Gran Turismo 5 will sell a lot more,10 millions perhaps?It´s so fun to try to guess things... ;)
OT79
K-Squad! (Badass Edition)
Posted 11:14 AM 4/4/08
@somarix:
Better be careful where you say that... You might get hurt...
K-Squad! (Badass Edition)
NutManIV
Posted 11:12 AM 4/4/08
Btw I dont think theres any way ffxii will sell 8 million. FFX sold 6.6 million and FFXII sold about 5 million.
NutManIV
NutManIV
Posted 11:10 AM 4/4/08
@TheNocturnalSun:
Japan is irrelevant. They become more irrelevant as far as gaming goes every year. Console and software sales are better in America than anywhere else, and recently sales have started to get better in Europe than Japan. Besides has japan ever been a decent market for GTA?
San andreas sold 15 million on the PS2 alone. GTA IV can easily sell 13 million this year.
NutManIV
Superstar90
Posted 11:08 AM 4/4/08
I doubt FF13 will come out this year, and even if it does it won't sell 8 million. I know it would cause a surge in PS3 sales. But seriously, does Japan even have 8 million PS3s?
GTA 4 at 13 million is kind of unbelievable, I say it gets to 7-8 million, Brawl gets to 5-6 million and Gears 2 gets to 3-4 million (it's coming out in November).
Superstar90
TheNocturnalSun
Posted 11:05 AM 4/4/08
it will sell well here in the states, but those kind of numbers are really limited how it is recieved in Japan too.
TheNocturnalSun
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 11:05 AM 4/4/08
@somarix:
PC versions are pretty much always released down the line
LittleBigPlaneteer
dhlt25
Posted 11:05 AM 4/4/08
what a bunch of bs. Final Fantasy XIII will be lucky to come out on the holiday this year and in 2,3 months time it ain't gonna sell 8 mil. copy, I doubt FFXII had sold 8 mil. copies yet. Also I don't even think the original gears had sold 7 mil. yet, why do they think the next one will sell 7 mil in 2,3 months time also? and the last metal gear sold less than 5 mil on a 100 mil install base, what do they think is different this gen?
dhlt25
somarix
Posted 11:04 AM 4/4/08
So they expect even more people to join in the GTA bandwagon? Nah, I didn't get a copy of GTA3, and won't get one of GTA4. It's not my type of game. (I was made several times to play it for an hour each time, and also made to watch friends play till I get sick of it, I've seen all its gameplay). I've got enough games for the PS3 to keep me gaming.
And since there won't be a PC version, you can kiss many of your previous fans goodbye.
somarix
Magic Emperor Anima
Posted 11:01 AM 4/4/08
So, do the analysts gather around a poker table to relax and place these bets?
Anyway, of course GTAIV will sell well. I'm more interested in how the hell Final Fantasy XIII entered the fray. It's not even announced for Japan yet.
Magic Emperor Anima
Deus Ex Machina
Posted 11:00 AM 4/4/08
Woah, some of these predictions are insane. Gears of War 2 will sell 7 million copies in two months? WTF.
Deus Ex Machina
MasterSauce
Posted 11:00 AM 4/4/08
Pro Evolution Soccer. Sorry, I live in the US so...Wouldn't know that.
MasterSauce
easytarget
Posted 10:59 AM 4/4/08
While I agree with what most of you guys think about his outlandish and pretty obvious comments, I think you also need to consider the fact that these predictions aren't for you or I.
I'm thinking generally these comments are more for your average investor (or Wall Street fat cats) who really don't know anything about games. All they might read are the occasional mainstream news piece about how video game revenues are rivaling those of Hollywood and want to get a piece of the action. While I'm sure on the surface his analysis seems super shallow, I'd like to think that behind the scenes there's a little more "research" going on.
Nevertheless, dude is captain obvious.
easytarget
therationalpi
Posted 10:57 AM 4/4/08
My prediction: politicians and a certain Florida lawyer will point at GTAIV as the root cause of all that is wrong with the world. More importantly, not a single gamer will care, and they'll buy the game anyway. It'll probably boost sales, so the 13 Million sounds somewhat fair.
The only question I have is this, are the analysts basing these numbers off of the release dates that the companies are giving out, or making their own estimations on when these games are gonna ship? If any of the games get delayed, it will seriously skew the numbers. Final Fantasy XIII is just the most obvious point for that.
therationalpi
Darthvinder
Posted 10:55 AM 4/4/08
Looking past the typo (lawlz we're in 2008 not 2007 zomg u taiped rong), I don't think it's implausible. This GTA, if it is the amazing amazingness they've promised, could do it.
Darthvinder
MasterSauce
Posted 10:55 AM 4/4/08
What is PES again?
Also, color me impressed that wrestling games sell that well.
MasterSauce
NoFunShogun
Posted 10:55 AM 4/4/08
haha, please. That's just ludicrous. Don't get me wrong, I want GTA IV to sell as many copies as possible, but 13 million in about 8 months? That seems ridiculous!
Just do the math. The PS2 had over a hundred million consoles on the market while the original Xbox had about 25 million, if memory serves. Even when one takes into account those that owned both consoles and those that had to buy more than one version of the same console for replacement or ****s and giggles, that still swamps the total number of available consoles to play GTA upon by a huge margin when compared to this generation.
It just seems unlikely that GTA IV will be able to compete sales-wise with the earlier ones in the series on account of the much smaller market that exists right now for this generation.
NoFunShogun
CaptLtrl
Posted 10:54 AM 4/4/08
Grand theft auto IV is going to sell tons of copies? WHO WOULD'VE THOUGHT IT?
CaptLtrl
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 10:54 AM 4/4/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer:
I should note, that including MGS4 in a PS3 bundle was an excellent move and will no doubt inflate the number for MGS4 sales.
LittleBigPlaneteer
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 10:51 AM 4/4/08
@sascha23:
Actually I'd say Gran Turismo 5 has a great chance of outselling MGS 4 worldwide.
Look at the sales from the most recent of each:
Gran Turismo 4: 10 million (including 2.9 million from N. america)
MGS 3: 3.6 million
LittleBigPlaneteer
TheCleaningGuy
Posted 10:49 AM 4/4/08
Hay Guyz, I'm a analyst!
GTA Will sell liek a million billion copiez and be online w/ jHAlo 4 over Live!
I don't like analysts, they can pretty much say whatever they want, and if one thing out of 20 comes true, they get hailed for it.
TheCleaningGuy
Arnold Rimmer's Garden Strimmer
Posted 10:48 AM 4/4/08
@crunks: This.
Arnold Rimmer's Garden Strimmer
Wyld
Posted 10:48 AM 4/4/08
@Erwin:
It sickens me that a guy like that gets paid to say obvious stuff like this with his "predictions" while tossing numbers without any seriuos calculation (just a stupid generic guess based on sales of other games) while I´m unemployed, and worse yet, that people actually follow him and he affects the share market of the companies.
Wyld
sascha23
Posted 10:46 AM 4/4/08
@olinred: You still can't really line-up the software sold on 360 and PS3 as the "real console wars".
With 12 million PS3s and 18 million 360s, you'll want to balance out the figures accordingly.
I admit, right now 360 is doing really well with attach rates. Unfortunately, I still prefer my PS3 for gaming whenever possible.
sascha23
Mr.SithNinja
Posted 10:44 AM 4/4/08
Is anybody else tired of seeing software sales figures with Wii Play listed in them?? Who the hell has the game in mind when they buy it? The only reason it sells is for the Wii-mote. It should be listed under acessories.
Mr.SithNinja
crunks
Posted 10:44 AM 4/4/08
The only analyst that matters is Michael Pachter. PACHTER WATCH
crunks
dethFLUX
Posted 10:44 AM 4/4/08
time paradox!!!
dethFLUX
Wyld
Posted 10:43 AM 4/4/08
"Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst" - ooooh sounds like a prophet name to me!
"Something famous will sell a lot!"
What a brilliant analysys!
Thanks for clearing me up on this subject now I feel complete!
How many millions , come again? hmmm.
Now how many fingers I´m holding up? That´s right, you´re a genius, just one and it´s the middle finger one.
Wyld
QualityJeverage
Posted 10:43 AM 4/4/08
I can believe it. The sheer amount of mass appeal GTA has, combined with the fact that this looks like (In my opinion) the first GTA game that actually deserves that praise.
QualityJeverage
InsidiousTuna
Posted 10:43 AM 4/4/08
Well, I'm only buying one.
Ok. Maybe two.
InsidiousTuna
Blah-Blah-Blah
Posted 10:42 AM 4/4/08
And they are not wrong at all. 360 + PS3. Almost player of both consoles buying GTA4? It will sell more over time.
Blah-Blah-Blah
Asurastrike
Posted 10:42 AM 4/4/08
Topic says 2007. That's amazing GTAIV sold 13M a year before it shipped!
Asurastrike
humorbot
Posted 10:42 AM 4/4/08
"Irrational exuberance."
humorbot
olinred
Posted 10:42 AM 4/4/08
I'm interested to see what ratio they expect of PS3 to 360's for GTA IV. Let the true console war begin...
olinred
sascha23
Posted 10:41 AM 4/4/08
You know, I don't think they know what the hell they're talking about. I'd rather listen to Pachter who actually lines up some solid arguments for his figures. Also, 11 million for GTA4 in 2008? Interesting.
I doubt Gran Turismo will outsell MGS4, but then again I could be losing my mind and the world will prove me wrong. GT has a strong following in Europe, but the rest of the world isn't so nuts about it. MGS4 has solid enthusiasm building worldwide.
We shall see!
sascha23
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 10:41 AM 4/4/08
@Bigfoot:
yes
LittleBigPlaneteer
baberg
Posted 10:40 AM 4/4/08
*ahem* 13 million copies sold in '07? That'd be a feat :)
And there's no way it will hit 13 million by the end of this year. They're basically saying half of the consoles in the market right now will buy GTA4, and I just don't see that happening - especially when you consider those of us who have both a PS3 and a 360. We're not going to buy 2 copies.
If it's showered with 10/10 from every reviewer and deserves the rating, maybe I can see it breaking 10 million. Maybe. But it's likely to have flaws.
But what do I know, I'm just a gamer.
baberg
Bigfoot
Posted 10:40 AM 4/4/08
Is GTA really that good?
Bigfoot
Erwin
Posted 10:40 AM 4/4/08
I predict GTA, the next game in a traditionally excellent selling series, will sell many copies and will go on to be the best selling game this year, almost rivaled only by the sequel to the high selling Gears of War. That was tough, can I be an analyst now?
Erwin
[KU]Shindokie: Check My Message for 5 Of on GTP
Posted 10:40 AM 4/4/08
YOu guys have been mistakes left and right. It also had to be you McWhertor! Your going to get it for this :D :P XD
[KU]Shindokie: Check My Message for 5 Of on GTP
Horseflesh
Posted 10:40 AM 4/4/08
You're right, at this point releasing a game in '07 would be pretty shocking.
Horseflesh
ErskinPig
Posted 10:39 AM 4/4/08
The conjectural guesses of analysts are irrelevant.
ErskinPig
polarenvy
Posted 10:39 AM 4/4/08
Title is very confusing
polarenvy
bighit006
Posted 10:39 AM 4/4/08
i doudt gears 2 will sell that many
bighit006
illmatic291
Posted 10:38 AM 4/4/08
GTA has Competition?
illmatic291
Elemence
Posted 10:37 AM 4/4/08
07? I are confused... O.o
Elemence
Detre
Posted 10:35 AM 4/4/08
isnt GOW2 coming out in november? Be pretty impressive to sell 7 million in 2 months...
Detre
im a piece
Posted 10:34 AM 4/4/08
Beat me to it, I was going to say back to the future.
im a piece
Woodwater
Posted 10:34 AM 4/4/08
Mmmm...Ok. I'll buy ONE copy of GTA 4.
Woodwater
DaveKap
Posted 10:34 AM 4/4/08
I feel like I'm stuck in a time travel vortex... are we talking about 2007 or 2008?
DaveKap
peAr_nectAr
Posted 11:48 AM 4/4/08
I just hope it lives up to its expectations, both financially and as a game. If this game is a letdown, I will probably stop playing video games for a while, just out of sheer disappointment.
peAr_nectAr
gusiskirby
Posted 11:47 AM 4/4/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer: But Gran Turismo was packed in with the PS2 and Metal Gear Solid 3 wasn't. Besides, with that Assassin's Solid video on Youtube, it will make many more people want MGS4.
gusiskirby
Strange Bedfellows
Posted 11:38 AM 4/4/08
I will shit myself and then walk around in my soggy underpants for a week if FF XIII makes it in 2008.
OK, not really.
Actually, I'd be pretty happy! But it ain't gonna happen. Well, not in English anyway.
Strange Bedfellows
weeoo
Posted 11:37 AM 4/4/08
Optimistic are they? lol. I'm glad they are n' all but don't expect me to buy a copy, I'm more of a Mercenaries and Crackdown kind of guy:)
weeoo
D Mitsuki
Posted 11:32 AM 4/4/08
@Sabre_Justice: Okay, no more long name.: I dont really mind all that, but for about 5 minutes then i play somthing more engaging, it just to mee seems like hold square to lock on r2 to shoot repeat stuff hapens strategy doesnt and do this over and over, or drive over person repeat, the missions dont do much for me, nor does the combat system, but hey whatever games you like you like.
D Mitsuki
Candlejack
Posted 11:31 AM 4/4/08
@bangbangblah: Well I basically broke down when I realized there was no way around the PS3 in order to play MGS4. And looking back, even if there were, I still wouldn't regret my purchase. Such a fine, robust system. Very reliable.
Candlejack
Candlejack
Posted 11:29 AM 4/4/08
@Magic Emperor Anima: Ehe, I'm not the only one then :) If there was some kinda launch event where you could go to the shop at midnight in the UK and buy the game, I'd actually do it (and I never did that before).
Candlejack
bangbangblah
Posted 11:28 AM 4/4/08
@Candlejack: You're not the only one. I keep procrastinating in buying a PS3. But I know the day that MGS comes out, I'll be heading to a store. That's probably the one game that can single-handidly get me to purchase the console (not that there aren't other out there that I want to play! one of which will be GTA 4).
bangbangblah
Magic Emperor Anima
Posted 11:27 AM 4/4/08
@Candlejack: You? The only game I would want to play more than MGS4 at the moment would be Lunar 3, but that project is practically doomed beyond belief.
Magic Emperor Anima
bangbangblah
Posted 11:26 AM 4/4/08
So basically more than half of current gen console owners will buy GTA? Sorry, but that seems a little unrealistic to me. 13 million over time, definitely. But this year alone? I doubt it.
bangbangblah
pwn-master3001
Posted 11:25 AM 4/4/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer: but then again...MGS wasnt really "hip" the hype surrounding the forth one will make it "hip"
Also i predict tht Halo 4 will sale 1 billion copies for 1993, Home will come out this year and saint rows 2 will sell more copies than GTA 5! when hell freeze over...
pwn-master3001
Magic Emperor Anima
Posted 11:25 AM 4/4/08
@JorgieX: You or your buddies might not want to, but the thousands of little Timmys and Sallys will enjoy it with their families on Friday nights. That's where the bulk of Wii Fit sales are going.
Magic Emperor Anima
Sabre_Justice: Okay, no more long name.
Posted 11:25 AM 4/4/08
@D Mitsuki: Boring and repetitive how?
Most of the fun is being in a big sandbox, a heavily detailed, almost real world that is both a parody of popular culture and a brutal anarchic satire of the real world.
But if you don't like it, it just might not be for you. And that's fine.
Sabre_Justice: Okay, no more long name.
Candlejack
Posted 11:24 AM 4/4/08
@D Mitsuki: No. Either you like GTA or you don't. Or you pretend to do in order to fit in.
I actually don't like it because I think the series went downhill drastically but with *this* one, I gained some interest so I will be picking it up. Not when it comes out though.
In any case, you can't create a game that I want to play more than MGS(4). You can't. It's impossible. I must be worse than an MGS fanboy. So in my taste, GTA isn't competition - it's a timekiller.
Candlejack
RaepGoblin
Posted 11:24 AM 4/4/08
@D Mitsuki, if you can explain the Halo hype, i'll work on that for you.
RaepGoblin
RaepGoblin
Posted 11:23 AM 4/4/08
@raepgoblin, (in america)
RaepGoblin
D Mitsuki
Posted 11:22 AM 4/4/08
Why do people like GTA so much, i find it boring and repetitive...somebody care to tell me why all the hype?
D Mitsuki
RaepGoblin
Posted 11:21 AM 4/4/08
13 Mil? Why aren't they being generous? They'll sell a copy of gta to 9 out of 10 current gen console owners.
Gears2 selling 7 mil in 2 months? So they're saying it'll sell more copies than GTA on one platform in half the time?
RaepGoblin
JorgieX
Posted 11:17 AM 4/4/08
why is the hype machine pushing the projected sales for Wii Fit...? I know at least 25 people with a Wii and not for a moment are any of us gonna pick up a freakin board to play games on nor try to get fit while playing. So as much fun as I do have when my friends come by da crib we are not looking to start balancing on a freakin crappy (yet another) add on controller for the Wii. I swear Nintendo should make a platic rocking horse to ride while you stick the wii-mote into the horses mouth so it can detect your back and forth movement. So we can see the analists say that it will sell millions. The Wii Zapper anyone?..what a joke.
JorgieX
BrentW
Posted 11:17 AM 4/4/08
CALL OF DUTY 5?
BrentW
Erwin
Posted 11:16 AM 4/4/08
@easytarget: Yeah, but after Jack Thompson, shooting blame games, Hilary Clinton, and Hot Coffee, who DOESN'T know GTA?
Erwin
NutManIV
Posted 12:23 PM 4/4/08
@TheEngineer: Hates the UE3:
7 million for gow 2 is possible. The first one sold about 5 million. Probably not in 2008 though since it has a nov release date and is only on one platform. Although with more 360 owners and more hype I could see it getting close.
NutManIV
KingBroly
Posted 12:19 PM 4/4/08
GTAIV will not sell 13 million copies in 2008.
KingBroly
KirbyMorph
Posted 12:18 PM 4/4/08
@Candlejack: MGS3 sold 3.6 million, a far cry from an average 6 million. MGS1 had 6, 2 had about 7 and Ops barely broke 1 million.
KirbyMorph
Candlejack
Posted 12:17 PM 4/4/08
@KirbyMorph: You're forgetting that 90% of the people, easily, who own a PS3 at the moment basically bought it with MGS4, maybe FF in the back of their minds. There are no casual gamers out there with PS3s and I still doubt there are any with 360s.
Candlejack
TheEngineer: Hates the UE3
Posted 12:16 PM 4/4/08
I don't think there are enough 360s and PS3s for GTA IV to sell 13 million. I don't believe Brawl will sell 9 million either, and I don't believe FF XIII will launch this year. Also, 7 million for GoW2? Are they kidding. Those are Halo numbers for that timespan. No way in hell it will happen.
TheEngineer: Hates the UE3
excel_excel
Posted 12:15 PM 4/4/08
Super Smash Bros. Brawl (9 million) hmm, very interesting if it sells that much then maybe Nintendo will do something about the online...hmm...
and Final Fantasy XIII? WHA? shouldn't that read 2010?
@reptile168:Yes Metal Gear Solid 2 sold over 7 million worldwide, although Snake Eater managed 3.75 million
excel_excel
KirbyMorph
Posted 12:14 PM 4/4/08
@reptile168: No. MGS2 sold well, the most in the series, but 3 tanked, relatively speaking, especially considering it was selling to over 100 million consoles compared to MGS2's 30-50 million range and 3 was a superior game in every fashion. If they don't care enough about MGS3 and it's the lowest selling MGS game, 4, selling to a fraction of the PS2's user base should be lucky to push 1-2 million range.
KirbyMorph
Candlejack
Posted 12:10 PM 4/4/08
@reptile168: It normally does around 6 million each, yea. I expect way more with so many hungry PS3 fans out there though.
@tslothrop: MGS is one in a million :)
Candlejack
D Mitsuki
Posted 12:09 PM 4/4/08
@Cogito: Heh now that you say somthign i remember crackdown, that game was awesome lol give me a nubmer 2 of that pl0x, its sad so many people bought it then just sold it cuz they just wanted to play a halo 3 beta :/
D Mitsuki
PissedPS3Fan
Posted 12:07 PM 4/4/08
Don't forget that GTA4 will sell consoles, on both sides. I predict that 1 million consoles total will be sold because of GTA4.
Personally, you can mark me down as a "+1" in the PS3 column. :P
PissedPS3Fan
reptile168
Posted 12:07 PM 4/4/08
Does MGS sell even that much historically?
reptile168
Cogito
Posted 12:02 PM 4/4/08
@D Mitsuki: You're not alone. GTA III was cool for it's ZOMG factor, and Vice City was (IMO) the best of the series. San Andreas, on the other hand, was as you say; boring and repetitive. I think there were far too many simlation elements in a game that feels more arcadey. Example: I really don't care if my guy gets fat if he eats too much pizza. In fact, I don't even want my character to get hungry. I'd rather drive a motorcycle through a billboard over a river, or something of the like. Perhaps that's why I liked Crackdown so much; it let me toss cars at people. That never gets old!
Cogito
vanderblade
Posted 12:02 PM 4/4/08
Is somebody forgetting the awesome power of Guitar Hero 4? Guitar Hero 3 sold close to 8 million in just a few months. I think 4 could do better. Other than that, I just think these numbers are too high for one year. 13 million in one year for GTAIV? Oh yeah? I think Pachter (sp?) has a better eye than this, and that's saying a lot.
vanderblade
tslothrop
Posted 12:01 PM 4/4/08
@Candlejack: I'm right there with you guys -- and I haven't even finished the series yet!
I'd never played a MGS until the new Essential Collection came out and am already about halfway (I think) through MGS3.
I'm kind of stunned at how much I'm enjoying them; Kojima somehow created an iconoclastic anti-game that's still fun to play. I can't wait to see how it all wraps up.
tslothrop
kftgr
Posted 11:54 AM 4/4/08
Gears 1 sold to about 1/3 of the 360 population. Doubt it'd get to even 1/4 this time around, much less 1/3 in TWO months.
kftgr
NutManIV
Posted 11:53 AM 4/4/08
@bangbangblah:
I find it entirely possible that it will sell 13 million in one year. Halo 3 and Call of duty 4 both sold about 8 million in a matter of months. GTA IV has as much, if not more, hype than those games. Look at the best selling Ps2 games. On the PS2 alone the GTA series from 3-SA has sold about 45 million copies.
NutManIV
slikz21
Posted 12:56 PM 4/4/08
@Sollus: Don't choke on your Hatorade!
slikz21
Sollus
Posted 12:49 PM 4/4/08
I hope it destroys Halo 3's numbers because Halo 3 blew ass. People buying into the hype.
Sollus
Xiedo
Posted 12:46 PM 4/4/08
Huh... I've never heard of James Bond: Quantum of Solace until now. That is the fucking weirdest Bond name yet. And apparently it's predicted #15 in 2008? Right below MGS4 (#13)? It just gets weirder. I thought the Bond series since Goldeneye had disappeared from the radar.
Xiedo
RichChap
Posted 12:45 PM 4/4/08
I noticed the typo before, but I was too lazy to point it out. Now I'm pointing it out, but it's not there anymore D:
RichChap
Hrist
Posted 12:43 PM 4/4/08
I still say Wii-Fit is going to end up selling more. It's the "good game" to the "bad game" that is GTA IV, and will probably be prominently featured on numerous morning shows as the neat little game that will help you lose weight as opposed to kill prostitutes. Mother's with fat children everywhere will be thrilled. The fat children who want GTA IV less so.
Hrist
Huxleyhobbes
Posted 12:38 PM 4/4/08
Selling 13 million copies would put it in the top ten selling console videogames ever. Within eight months of release, that would be a hell of a feat.
I can see it happening, but I wouldn't put much money on it.
Huxleyhobbes
CockroachMan
Posted 12:37 PM 4/4/08
FFXIII estimate?
Woah.. these guys are really good.. or they really have no idea of what they're talking about :P
CockroachMan
Lemming To The Sea
Posted 12:35 PM 4/4/08
@UltimateIdiot: Yes, because you are a direct representative for all of the consumers in the world.
GTA4 will sell well, but I don't know how well. We don't know what's all even due out this year or when, but it's a good bet that GTA will move a lot of copies. Whether or not it will be first, or even top 3, is still to be seen (honestly who was expecting COD4 to be top seller last year?).
Lemming To The Sea
Candlejack
Posted 12:32 PM 4/4/08
@KirbyMorph: MGS3 was the organ rejected by the body if you so want. The story was driving away from Snake too much, you played a different character yet again, and the game also had dated gameplay mechanics (speaking camera and stuff).
Also, I hardly think anybody is counting handheld sales.
Candlejack
UltimateIdiot
Posted 12:31 PM 4/4/08
hmmm, i think this prediction is a quite off. i don't plan to get gta 4, but i do have plans for MGS 4 (already preorder the limited and have the beta key) and soul calibar 4 within the next 3 months
UltimateIdiot
gique
Posted 1:11 PM 4/4/08
it'll probably happen, the advertising budget for this must be astronomical.
gique
zibby
Posted 1:46 PM 4/4/08
I hate to be a crank, but I hope it's more than San Andreas with better graphics. I was geting tired of the formula by that point.
But the non-cranky part of me is optimistic.
zibby
Chances
Posted 2:29 PM 4/4/08
As pointed out above, to an audience like us saying "GTA 4 will sell whole bunches" is very much like saying "Cookie Monster like chocolate chip". We know. We get it.
But it's true that nothing else coming out this year is positioned to take on the new GTA. Metal Gear Solid 4 will move a lot of consoles (so will GTA - nobody buys an Xbox for Grand Theft Auto, they buy it for teh Haloz and Gearsez and Live), and I think it'll help Sony out a lot more than Miscrosoft in the long run.
The fact is, GTA IV is multi-platform. Gran Turismo will do very well, but only on one platform. Gears and MGS (I can't believe I'm putting those two in the same sentence) will both do well, but only on one platform, respectively.
The only other game that comes to mind as a multi-platform release this year from a proven moneymaking brand is the new Star Wars game, coming to something like seven consoles this summer. Of course, comparing Star Wars and Grand Theft Auto is like comparing a YT-1300 light freighter to a Blista Compact.
*
On a slightly personal note (in defense of a masterpiece) I have to point out that to me San Andreas was the absolute pinnacle of free roaming games. When I was a wee chile, I played an old 8-bit driving game. For a brief, wonderful moment I actually imagined the game would allow me to plan out my rout through the countryside. I would be able to drive out into the woods and down highways, and stop at a little corner store, maybe to buy a chocolate bar (I was eight) and see the sights. Alas, the game I was actually playing allowed you to drive straight, eventually ending at a finish line.
But I remember having that lovely daydream. It took 'em about thirteen years to make the video game I dreamed of as a kid - and they called it San Andreas. Personally I'm a little miffed that GTA IV will be smaller space-wise than SA, but I'm still sure (like everyone else) it'll be the #1 game of 2008.
Chances
Spartan1308
Posted 2:16 PM 4/4/08
To everyone doubting the Gears 2 figure, I'd suggest you look at what Halo 3 did at the end of last year. There will be a year's worth of increase in the 360 user base, and you don't think it will sell 7 million? It might not make it quite to 7.7 but I don't doubt it could meet the number of copies of Halo 3 sold last year.
@Xiedo: Treyarch is supposedly using the COD4 tech to make one new Bond game and Bizarre Creations(PGR devs) are to be working on a driving-centric Bond game.
@Candlejack: You're forgetting there are a lot of people out there who have bought a PS3 b/c it's the best Bluray player and has been the cheapest up until recently.
@sascha23: I'll say this first. I think GT has a bigger fan base than MGSIV everywhere(including the Kojima house [kotaku.com]) However I'm not sure Prologue will beat MGSIV.
Spartan1308
Nexus6
Posted 3:03 PM 4/4/08
COD5 will bomb.
Nexus6
GodzillaVsJapan
Posted 2:50 PM 4/4/08
13 million seems a bit high I was thinking around 10 mil. And lol that mgs4 is way too high
GodzillaVsJapan
jfx316
Posted 2:44 PM 4/4/08
halo 3 was going to sell whether or not it was good because of the media hype.
gta4 being on both platforms can definitely sell that much.
GOW 2 will sell, but not more then the first unless people buy on hope rather than......oh yeah.
jfx316
Anemone
Posted 5:04 PM 4/4/08
@Jmontilla2786: It doesn't mean that it won't suck... and it will. WWIIFPS's have been dated and irrelevant since WWI. I guess it depends upon the way you look at the phrase "bomb."
Anemone
Jmontilla2786
Posted 4:56 PM 4/4/08
@Nexus6: in ur dreams it will ....not after cod4 went gangbusters last year
Jmontilla2786
Erwin
Posted 7:03 PM 4/4/08
@Anemone: Who says it will be set in WWII? But if Treyarch develops this one, yeah... that may be accurate.
Erwin
zyberteq
Posted 8:22 PM 4/4/08
make that 12.999.999 in 2008 if they dont release a PC version ;)
zyberteq
Pinhead
Posted 10:07 PM 4/4/08
Only 13?
Pinhead
Harteex
Posted 11:23 PM 4/4/08
This GTA seems to be a nice game, however I haven't really enjoyed GTA in 3D.. but I loved the first and second 2D ones.
As for MGS 4. I really like all the story and the humor at some places, seems like a really cool game. Unfortunally I don't really like the gameplay of these stealth games :(
Harteex
Coffee Ninja
Posted 12:59 AM 5/4/08
Sexy year in gaming 2008 will be ~
Coffee Ninja
thor79
Posted 5:24 PM 4/4/08
@Chances: GTA is a franchise that has sold many systems. I have bought 3 consoles myself for the series. I am a PC Gamer at heart but I love the GTA series too much to miss out on it a launch. I bought 2 PS2's (sold each afterward) for Vice City and San Andreas. This time around I bought a 360 for it. Several people in my primarily PC Gaming guild are buying 360's as well for GTA IV. So saying it doesn't sell Xbox's is simply not true. GTA IV will be a major system mover on both sides (360 vs PS3). The fact that this time it IS on both sides means it will sell more in the past when it was limited to just the Playstation brand on initial release.
thor79
Hayko
Posted 11:06 AM 4/4/08
@NoFunShogun: yeap, I agree with you. GTA has always been a staple series, so when they came out for the PS2/Xbox it wasn't like some unknown game that people might have come across and bought. Every potential buyer probably knew of it and it sold the amount it did. Now you have a fraction of the install base and this guys thinks its going to sell more in a fraction of the time. What kind of maths is that. GTA will sell a fuckton in it's lifetime, possible more than the last, but not that quickly.
Hayko
JoDark117
Posted 10:48 AM 4/4/08
@olinred: 360 easily
JoDark117
Psymantis
Posted 10:44 AM 4/4/08
You see, with so many copies being sold; GTA IV will be flying off the shelves at 88 mph. Once they hit 88 mph, it's over.
Oh, and a flux capacitor helps too... "1.21 Gigawatts!!"
Psymantis
JoDark117
Posted 10:42 AM 4/4/08
@bighit006: Maybe not,i was thinking more like 6 million.
JoDark117
Spoony Bard
Posted 2:20 AM 5/4/08
Well, I have faith in FFXIII, but not 8 million bones-type faith.
Spoony Bard
krln99
Posted 4:27 AM 5/4/08
They immediately outed themselves as complete morons for saying FF 13 will launch this year. FF 13 will launch this year like MGS4 did in 2007. Get my drift?!
I called MGS4 in 08 and I'm calling FF13 in 2009, at best.
krln99
Strangelove
Posted 7:53 AM 5/4/08
@Sollus:
Back to your cave, troll. It will sell more because it's multiplatform.
Strangelove
Blah8
Posted 8:25 AM 5/4/08
I agree with pretty much everything this guy predicts with one exception: GT4P will not outsell MGS4. I can see the Force Unleashed possibly doing better, but a prologue version of a game series and genre that is losing popularity doesn't have a good chance against MGS4. Now, I'm thinking mainly about the States here, so it'll most likely be a different story in Europe. Overall, though, I still stand with my prediction.
Blah8
soyombo2001
Posted 2:30 PM 5/4/08
Funny how PC games aren't even considered. But watch as Starcraft 2 eats everyone (if it comes out this year).
soyombo2001
ResetSmith
Posted 11:45 AM 4/4/08
Eh, who cares what this Ernst guy has to say? If it ain't Pachter, I don't care!
His commentary is pure DURRRR anyway. Like, really buddy. No kidding?
ResetSmith
Debo2U
Posted 12:51 PM 4/4/08
I hope so
Debo2U
GodKiller
Posted 12:25 PM 4/4/08
Well if GTA IV comes for pc with online multiplayer and such, I will buy it like I bought San Andreas before...I couldn't care less to play with a controller for aiming, no mods, no trainers, in game cheats that inter fear with game play...
Till that happens I doubt they reach 13m easy
GodKiller