industry news
Analyst: GTA IV To Hit 15 Million This Year
Posted by Michael McWhertor at 7:40 AM on June 7, 2008
Earlier this year, Hudson Square Research analyst Daniel Ernst issued estimates for Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto IV, pegging 2008 sales for the title at 13 million copies. Not a bad take. Analyst analysers populating the post's comments called that figure into question, with insight ranging from "Durrrr" and "dude is captain obvious" to "unbelievable" and "unrealistic".
Today, Ernst upped his estimate to 15 million on word from Take-Two that the publisher had already sold through 8.5 million copies of GTA IV, with 11 million shipped to retailers. Ernst noted that "We expect GTA IV sales to re-accelerate in the latter part of year in conjunction with the seasonal holiday period".
As for Final Fantasy XIII shipping 7 million in 2008?
Ernst said that "Initially we had hoped it would make it in for the end of the year" but that FFXIII "definitely appears off the table" according to Square Enix guidance. Frankly, we'll be thrilled (and maybe even a bit flabbergasted) if it hits North America before 2010.
The Hudson Square Research analyst updated us on a handful of other key figures, noting that Gran Turismo 5 is also expected to be a "no show" this year and that next week's release of Metal Gear Solid 4 "won't be enough to materially accelerate the PS3 this year".
"For the PS3, that's definitely a set back", Ernst told us about titles that the firm expects to hit next year, "And I think is why their 10M unit guidance for the [fiscal year] was lower than most had expected".

Comments (AU Comments · US Comments)
There are currently no AU comments for this post.
Seabass
Posted 8:15 AM 7/6/08
@Jippon: Multiplayer maybe?
Seabass
Maudite
Posted 8:14 AM 7/6/08
personally LBP was what convinced me to buy a PS3 a few months ago... that's still octoberish 2008... right?
Maudite
Jippon
Posted 8:13 AM 7/6/08
Where and how is this screenshot taken?
... I think it's possible, unlikely, but possible.
Jippon
mva5580
Posted 8:07 AM 7/6/08
And this, my friends, is why companies are going multi-platform.
If this was system exclusive, the title of this article would be "Analyst: GTA IV To Hit 8 Million This Year"
MAYBE. By the next round of consoles, I would expect all games that are not Sony/MS published to be multi-platform.
mva5580
sascha23
Posted 8:05 AM 7/6/08
@SpishackCola: I highly doubt we will see FFXIII or GT5 earlier than Q3 2009. But, I predict by end of fiscal 2009, we will be playing both.
sascha23
Nirolak
Posted 8:04 AM 7/6/08
Frankly, we'll be thrilled (and maybe even a bit flabbergasted) if it hits North America before 2010.
Ugh, there are rumors that the next Xbox will be out by 2010. If Square can't get a Final Fantasy title out before the next generation starts it will be a very sad day.
Nirolak
sascha23
Posted 8:03 AM 7/6/08
@Stormrider: I agree. Final Fantasy 13 will hit in 2009 in my opinion as well. Heck, I'm still optimistic that we will have a demo during the holidays this year.
At this point the only RPG to hit the current-gen of systems that is even relevant is Mass Effect so far. Let's hope we have a couple more before FF13 hits.
sascha23
sascha23
Posted 8:00 AM 7/6/08
I think GTA is a great game and it has some brilliant moments, but ultimately it is what it is. Still shallow at times and a good way to spend an hour here and there until it's over.
Titles like Resistance, Uncharted, Final Fantasy and the MGS series had me hooked from beginning to end and playing just one hour seemed a pretty difficult task at times.
Of course, my preference and that of the general public differs greatly it seems. :)
sascha23
Ghede
Posted 8:00 AM 7/6/08
@liquid_kore: I am now analyzing the analysis of the analysts analysts.
Conclusion:
+ Watch video
Ghede
MOP88
Posted 7:57 AM 7/6/08
@Replica23: Be gone, strange being. Go back to Boredomplanet!
The only way to reach sich high figures, is to sell more consoles! So who will ride the wave?
MOP88
liquid_kore
Posted 7:54 AM 7/6/08
I'm now analyzing the analysts analysts.
Conclusion:
Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo.
liquid_kore
Stormrider
Posted 7:53 AM 7/6/08
Final Fantasy XIII is not coming out in 2008. I think we'll be lucky if it reaches North America by 2009, honestly.
Stormrider
NeoStarr
Posted 7:52 AM 7/6/08
Wasn't it announced somewhere around Final Fantasy X that the series was officially supposed to stop at XII? Yeah, I didn't really see that happening either. Still, XIII has been an unlucky number for Squeenix it seems.
Also- best screenshot ever.
NeoStarr
Sailorcancer
Posted 7:49 AM 7/6/08
Should I be honored that I'm not going to be one of those 15 millions?
Sailorcancer
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 7:49 AM 7/6/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer:
oops, my numbers are wrong. They've sold 8.5 million and shipped 11 million as stated in the article (I was going on memory, lol)
(sorry for the multiple posts)
LittleBigPlaneteer
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 7:47 AM 7/6/08
@eddienoteddy:
GTA IV is much bigger than COD. GTA IV has sold 6 million copies in a little over a month. And they've shipped 10 million? Obviously the subsequent months won't be as big, but say they sell 3 million next month, and another million or so every month after. Then there's the DLC that may come this Fall, which will sell even more. Really it's not a huge stretch to believe this will reach 15 million. My guess is it'll be around 13 million though.
LittleBigPlaneteer
Replica23
Posted 7:45 AM 7/6/08
No matter how hard I try to get enjoy or be apart of the GTA experience, I just don't get it. As in lack of amusement.
Replica23
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 7:45 AM 7/6/08
@SpishackCola:
I think it's guaranteed those will be 2009 titles
LittleBigPlaneteer
LittleBigPlaneteer
Posted 7:44 AM 7/6/08
@notoriousEIC:
I want this game and I don't have it. Not everyone owns a 360/PS3 yet, but I guarantee when they finally get one during the holiday, one of the first game's they will get is GTA4
LittleBigPlaneteer
SpishackCola
Posted 7:43 AM 7/6/08
Well, at least Sony will be dropping bombs during Q1 of 2009 if the FFXIII and GT5 are indeed pushed back to next year.
SpishackCola
notoriousEIC
Posted 7:43 AM 7/6/08
15 million in sales would surprise me, simply because I'd think that pretty much everyone who wants this game already has it.
notoriousEIC
eddienoteddy
Posted 7:43 AM 7/6/08
I'm not so sure about this. COD4 just hit 10 million
eddienoteddy
thesilentcircus
Posted 7:42 AM 7/6/08
damn thats a lot of GTA games
thesilentcircus
Vidril
Posted 8:42 AM 7/6/08
@sascha23:
Yeah but GTA IS right up there with final fantasy and MGS (for me), and a lot of people.
I see GTA as a game for both casual and hardcore gamers; I mean just about everyone I know (under 35 xD) has played GTA. That's GOTTA mean something.
Vidril
Nirolak
Posted 8:37 AM 7/6/08
@suya123: Well, Square itself called rumors of FFXIII releasing this year "erroneous" so I'm going to have to agree with the analyst. [kotaku.com]
Nirolak
suya123
Posted 8:27 AM 7/6/08
Please please PLEASE let this analyst be wrong about FFXIII not coming out this year. They are usually wrong anyways so why let him be true on this one?
suya123
Ehardergardens
Posted 8:23 AM 7/6/08
@Replica23: I respect the scope and work that goes into GTA games, but I'm also just not that interested in them.
I think their humor is just not my thing.
I'd absolutely play a game that had the same basic gameplay but had a style that was more my thing. Perhaps a version in europe or UK. I just don't care for american pop culture. Pretty tired of mafia games/movies too. Ironically at the time of GTA 3 came out I wanted them to do Russian Mafia, but doesn't interest me anymore.
I owned GTA 1969 but didn't get around to playing it. I think a remake or a new GTA based on that setting might be more appealing to me.
Ehardergardens
stranger
Posted 8:23 AM 7/6/08
My moneys on 18-20 million by the end of the year. All of the consoles are going to see a price drop for the Holiday season, and GTA will still be one of the best stocking- stuffers for either console.
Besides, Take Two has already shipped 11 million units of the game, and sold through 8.5 million, in less than two months. The drop off will be steep, but I still see it selling like crazy six months from now... especially with that DLC coming just before Christmas, which will certainly get it's own marketing campaign to reignite interest.
stranger
Antiterra
Posted 9:05 AM 7/6/08
Looks like GTAIV is the summer blockbustin' juggernaut of videogames, in more ways than one. (I know this sounds like a criticism, but it really isn't.)
As for FFXIII, I can picture it already: removing the shrink-wrap, sliding the disc in my shiny redesigned slimline PS3... Oooh yes, my friends, the PSThree will be out by then.
I kid, I kid! (Or so I hope...)
One game I'm really curious about is Okami. I wonder if the Wii effect will work on it. PS2 sales were demoralizing, so we'll see how it fares once it's been released worldwide.
Antiterra
ShaggE
Posted 8:56 AM 7/6/08
@Ehardergardens: I'd love a new GTA London. :D I want to drive a double decker under a low bridge and shear the top deck off. :p
ShaggE
Markez
Posted 8:53 AM 7/6/08
@Vidril:
I guess it's for hardcore gamers, just in terms of all the extra nonsense you can do.
Otherwise in my opinion, this is a really well disguised casual game. The difficulty level is a joke, because there isn't any. It's about as hard as Carnival Games on the Wii.
Houser is a tulip, and as big of a tool as Itagaki for acting like he's the biggest and most serious hardcore thing to ever hit gaming.
Markez
Makidian
Posted 8:50 AM 7/6/08
This guy is out of his fucking mind if he thinks GTA4 is gonna move another 6.5mil sold by the end of the year. I love GTA4 it's a great game but I think most of the people who wanted it have it. I would go for another 2.5-3mil shipped, maybe sold, for the rest of the kiddies that have to wait until the holiday but his number is absurd.
Makidian
sascha23
Posted 9:25 AM 7/6/08
@excel_excel: Actually, Lost Odyssey's sales were poor in Japan (only 100,000)sold.
I own the title and love the story, but the gameplay does what the old FF series did, but without the excitement and fun. Very drab interface.
Point being, to me, Mass Effect is the only relevant RPG on current gen systems right now. I hope there will be a proper JRPG before FFXIII, but currently nothing other than White Knight Story seems to be intriguing me.
sascha23
excel_excel
Posted 9:11 AM 7/6/08
@sascha23: I think Lost Oddessy was a particularly relevant RPG considering how well it was recieved espically in japan.
As for FF XIII coming out in 2009....god seriously this is square enix were talking about who delay even DS games like crazy, 2010 for sure.
GTA IV selling 15 mil looks to be fairly accurate, its basically a game that if someone doesn't have a 360 or PS3 that they'll pick up along with it
excel_excel
Foxstar Sixtail
Posted 10:01 AM 7/6/08
@Sailorcancer:No, because you think your edgy like that.
Foxstar Sixtail
Combichristoffersen
Posted 9:50 AM 7/6/08
Oh come on, release FF XIII already. I need an excuse to buy a PS3, and the only games I'd buy a current-gen console for are God of War III and FF XIII. So until either one of those are out, I'll keep sticking to my beloved pink PS2.
Combichristoffersen
Ramonskito
Posted 9:30 AM 7/6/08
@sascha23: Those are very, very good sales in Japan for a console made by the "foreign devils."
Ramonskito
excel_excel
Posted 9:28 AM 7/6/08
@sascha23: Yeah but for a 360 game in japan thats actually very good sales, I mean its not much but its something
excel_excel
notoriousEIC
Posted 10:15 AM 7/6/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer:
I should add, that as the holidays come around and more people get current-gen consoles, there will be plenty of used copies of GTAIV for sale, and those won't contribute to sales figures.
notoriousEIC
notoriousEIC
Posted 10:09 AM 7/6/08
@LittleBigPlaneteer:
Valid point. I'm sure there are plenty of people who want this game who have yet to get around to buying it; I just doubt there are another 7 or so million of them.
notoriousEIC
Herc
Posted 10:09 AM 7/6/08
@Sailorcancer: Considering you'll be one of the 6,662 million who won't own it, probably not. But I'm sure there are quite a few luminaries in your group, so that's something...
Herc
symeon6
Posted 10:45 AM 7/6/08
@NeoStarr: Yeah...Where d'ja get that screenshot?
symeon6
wild_world_girl
Posted 10:39 AM 7/6/08
@Zaos: Very true.
wild_world_girl
Zaos
Posted 10:30 AM 7/6/08
Analysts are full of shit.
haven't we all learned that? they're like speculators for US oil.
Zaos
mcool93
Posted 1:09 PM 7/6/08
In 2007, the year 2008 looked like it was going to save Sony and bring it up to par with Wii. But after knowing that two of the main PS3 games (GT5 and FFXIII) are delayed to 2009 or later, 2008 will be carried by solely by MGS4. Though, it'll have a good year, but not the great year it was anticipated.
mcool93
splines
Posted 11:15 PM 7/6/08
I've done my bit for the Rockstar hegemony. I have no doubt they'll hit those kind of numbers, considering the sheer quantity of people out there who still haven't invested in this here 'next gen' malarkey and are looking for a killer title.
Mind you I'm currently replaying Bioshock, with a view to getting all the achievements I can gather. I've finished GTAIV and want to leave it for a bit before I replay it as a total asshole as opposed to the nice guy I played it first time round (KOTOR flashbacks FTW).
splines
TF2Soldier914
Posted 10:14 AM 12/6/08
im expecting even more
TF2Soldier914
HenryHSH
Posted 7:44 AM 7/6/08
@SpishackCola: GT5 has been pushed to 09 for a while now.
HenryHSH