We’ve seen Sony finally announce the PS3 Slim and a price drop for the whole PS3 range. Understandably so, it needs the boost it will surely receive from a lower price point, as outside of Japan it’s the weakest performer of the three current generation consoles.

But how should Microsoft and even Nintendo react to that?

The Wii has slowed this year, as the industry as a whole has slowed. Even so, it’s still comfortably outselling the competition. And some of that competition – such as the Xbox 360 Arcade – is priced considerably cheaper than the Wii.

Microsoft appear to be phasing out the 60GB Pro console. But will that leave the 120GB Elite or is there another, higher-specced version on the way? In Britain today, we hear word that Microsoft is raising the price of the Arcade to combat a weak Pound/Euro exchange rate.

Regarding the handheld market, there’s the DSi shifting truckloads across the globe despite a premium over the hugely successful DS Lite. Yet analysts are predicting a price drop for it already.

And what of the PSPgo? It’s allegedly over-priced in the US, but Sony can’t yet confirm how it might be priced here in Australia.

Looking at all these factors coming into the still hugely important holiday season this year, here’s how I reckon Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony should be positioning their hardware in Australia.

Sony
Sony has already shown its hand. We know the PS3 will be $499 from Monday, and the Slim drops on September 3. Sony simply had to put pressure on the 360 by coming in under the price of the Elite. They needed to hit $499… and they did. A $200 drop is big enough to convert those who had been previously tempted, but hadn’t committed. It’s OK if they’re still the most expensive console, as the PS3 clearly provides the most out-of-the-box, but $500 is a psychological barrier they need to get under. Sony got this one right.
The PSP is an interesting one because while hardware seems to be doing OK, PSP software has lagged way behind. Sony needs the PSPgo to succeed in order to combat piracy, but getting retail support for a system that essentially cuts them out of the loop is a hard sell. How Sony balances the need to give retail a wider margin on the PSPgo hardware, while at the same time pricing it attractively compared to the existing PSP will be telling. If the PSP stays at $300, the PSPgo really can’t be more than $349… but I suspect it’ll be $399.

Microsoft
It’s hard to know whether the apparent phasing out of the Pro console was always planned or if it’s a response to the PS3 Slim. Either way, Microsoft knows it needs to maintain its price advantage over Sony’s console. With the Slim at $499, the premium Xbox must be no more than $399 and probably also sport a bigger hard drive than even the Elite carries at present. Getting a number on the box bigger than the Slim’s 120GB is an advantage not to be under-estimated.
The question then for Microsoft is how low can the Arcade go? It’s already $100 cheaper than the Wii, but are those two machines actually competing for market share? A lot depends on how worried Microsoft is about a $500 PS3 and how much they’ve driven down the 360’s manufacturing costs. I’d be surprised if they can get it to $199 this year, but expect to see even more aggressive bundling at $249 than we’ve seen even during the recent toy catalogue period.

Nintendo
The Wii won’t budge in response to any price drops coming from Sony or Microsoft. Nintendo aren’t interested in playing that game. Why should they? The Wii continues to outsell the other two combined. And for as long as people still want Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart and now Wii Sports Resort, they’ll continue to be willing to pay $399 for the pleasure.
Sales have slowed, however. But I’d expect bundles before price drops. A New Super Mario Bros. bundle with extra Wiimotes for $399 looks like a good Christmas gift.
Similarly, I wouldn’t expect much movement on the handheld front. DSi has stormed out of the gate, selling faster than even the DS Lite. Remarkably, the DS Lite is still selling as well. Again, Nintendo won’t pay any attention to what Sony does in this space. I expect them to maintain parity, perhaps push more bundled software on both versions, and hold on any price drops until next year.

So, here’s my prediction…

PS3: $499 (Slim console, no bundled software)
PSP: $299 (bundled with family-friendly software)
PSPgo: $399 (bundled with at least one download-only game)
Xbox 360: $249 (no hard drive, plus bundled family-friendly games)
Xbox 360: $399 (200+GB hard drive, plus at least one M-rated game)
Wii: $399 (New Super Mario Bros. bundle)
DS Lite: $199 (bundled with a range of games)
DSi: $299 (bundled with a range of games)

I’m keen to hear your thoughts. Do you see any flaws in my predictions? Who do you think has the most attractive proposition? And would any of these deals persuade you to buy a new console?

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Hardly takes Nate Silver to make such grandiose calls, but EA’s sim gave us the Patriots with the best overall record at 14-2. Other division winners predicted: Steelers, Titans and Chargers in the AFC; Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals and Bears (because someone has to finish first in that bunch) in the NFC.

The Colts, Ravens, Panthers and Giants get wild card bids. This means that, yet again, the phrase “West Division Champion” is the NFL equivalent of a “My Kid is a Terrific Kid” bumper sticker.

Really, these are such generic calls, they hardly show off the super realism of the Madden engine. Last night I ran my own simulations, regressions and distributions and came up with the following high-likelihood occurrences during the 2009-2010 season.

• Raiders owner Al Davis trades Jeff Garcia for the Bengals Stormtrooper; he joins an offence comprised of Johnny Lee Higgins, a chair, two BART cops and Gene Shalit.

• Delaware’s sports betting operation looks awful suspicious in week 12 when the Eagles beat Washington by 4 1/2.

• Terrell Owens manages to recruit Trent Edwards into his plot to undermine Bills QB Trent Edwards.

• Cincinnati sets single-game attendance record with its most popular giveaway ever: Bail.

• Sports media go wall-to-wall with Brett Favre coverage when it’s discovered he buys the “Not Done Yet” DLC in Madden 10’s franchise mode.

• Michael Vick goes unsigned the entire season. That’s because he’s not on the retail copy’s roster. (It’ll be intriguing to see if and exactly when he goes in the free agent pool with a roster update, though.)

• The most compelling professional football story west of the Mississippi continues to be the University of Southern California.

So too must Kotaku post its annual E3 predictions, a mix of truth, rumour and thinly veiled mockery. Will Sony announce a PlayStation 3 price drop and redesign? Will Virtual Boy games make their way to the Wii’s Virtual Console? Will Microsoft give us the sequel to Blood Wake we’ve been waiting for? Is the PC gaming industry ready for the next generation PC2?

Few of these questions will be answered at E3, but there’s still plenty to be announced. Read on for what we think will be big E3 news this year. Then start thinking about your wagers for our annual E3 betting pool.

Michael McWhertor
1. Hideo Kojima announces Metal Gear Solid 4 expansion, not Metal Gear Solid 5 (5:1)
2. Nintendo announces new Pikmin—and it’s for the Nintendo DSi only (10:1)
3. DSi Virtual Console announced, gets Game Boy, Game Boy colour and Game Boy Advance support (5:1)
4. Smaller, cheaper PlayStation 3 announced for Fall release (3:1)
5. Steven Spielberg’s “PQRS” project revealed for PC, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 (5:1)
6. Half-Life 2: Episode Three unveiled for PC and Xbox Live Arcade (3:1)

Brian Ashcraft
1. At the Nintendo presser someone will make a joke about Mother’s Day cards (2:1)
2. Price cut on the original PlayStation 3 (2:1)
3. Once again, someone will mistakenly call “Rock Band” “Guitar Hero” or vice versa on stage (4:1)
4. Konami announces Zoe of the Enders 3 (5:1)
5. Square Enix gives Final Fantasy XIII a more clear release date for the West than “2010.” (5:1)
6. The last day of E3 will be smelly (2:1)

Luke Plunkett
1. Microsoft announces major expansion of Avatar usage (4:1)
2. Nintendo announces new Legend of Zelda title for the Wii (8:1)
3. Sony’s new PlayStation Portable is revealed, but is not called the PSP Go! (3:1)
4. No price cut on the original PlayStation 3 (2:1)
5. Jerry Bruckheimer’s first project is unveiled, explosions feature prominently (8:1)
6. 2K announce a new X-COM title and it’s a squad-based shooter (12:1)

Amanda Glasser
1. Microsoft finally announces its hand held console (1000:1)
2. Nintendo announces a new Super Mario Bros. game for the DSi (10:1)
3. Sony announces a new PlayStation Eye game that doesn’t suck (99:1)
4. EA drops the Madden franchise for a Brad Gushue’s Curling franchise (100:1)
5. The Food Network forms its own game company (5:1)
6. Square Enix announces a Final Fantasy VII remake for PS3/360/Wii/DS/PSP (10000:1)

Brian Crecente
1. Microsoft unveils new motion controller (6:1)
2. The next iteration of Warhawk, Starhawk, will feature ship-to-ship space combat, but still no single player. (3:1)
3. Nintendo unveils an innovative game saving system aimed at a more casual audience (10:1)
4. Microsoft announces a Home-like virtual space that can be explored by Avatars (10:1)
5. Sony announces the PS3 Slim, but doesn’t announce the price (4:1)
6. Nintendo announces a new Zelda game for the Wii that will interact with The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (20:1)

Stephen Totilo
1. No matter how good any of them are, no download-only or portable game will win Game of the Show from any major outlet… because that’s just not allowed (2:1)
2. BioShock 2 will be announced as a timed exclusive for Xbox 360 or PS3 (5:1)
3. Nintendo will continue its several-years-long streak of not announcing any holiday tentpole games that star new characters (3:1)
4. Microsoft will announce Facebook-style status updates and other social-networking influences for their dashboard, because the lack of them is getting ridiculous already (4:1)
5. Assassin’s Creed 2 will have multiplayer (10:1)
6. Jet Force Gemini will finally get the sequel it deserves (300:1)

Owen Good
1. Gran Turismo announced for PSP (3:1)
2. Capcom does in fact show up with Dead Rising 2 in tow, swine flu stunt falls flat (5:1)
3. 3D Realms closure and Take Two lawsuit revealed to be marketing stunts; Duke Nukem Forever announced (100:1)
4. Square Eidos unveils new Hitman (1:1)
5. Cammie Dunaway, in Nintendo’s keynote, demonstrates a new “core” game, looks unhip (2:1)
6. Kojima’s big project is in fact Lords of Shadow, announcement thuds (3:1)

Mike Fahey
1. Nintendo’s Cammie Dunaway tells us a heartwarming story about her kids (10:1)
2. Nintendo finally delivers a new Kid Icarus game (50:1)
3. Sony teams with Apple to take down Microsoft once and for all (1000000:1)
4. Fahey gets drunk, sings karaoke (2:1)
5. Square Enix resurrects Chrono franchise (100:1)
6. Microsoft announces its own fitness peripheral (20:1)

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They’re all good reads — here’s one sample from Write the Game:

Families will have more in common, sharing triumphs and losses in video games. Kids will play with their parents, and everyone will have fun.

Conversely, many parents will stick their children in front of a PS3 to shut them up, whilst kids will find an easily accessible fantasy world in which to drown their fledgling identities.

Like everything else, a balance will have to be struck. Commercialism and arty experimentation will both clash with and compliment each other. Private joys will have to be placed against the thrill of being part of a well-oiled team. Mass victory will be accompanied by sessions of the blame-game.

There is one thing we can be sure of – it won’t be boring.

The entries range from standard musings to dystopian visions of the future; the monthly entries for Blogs of the Roundtable are always worth keeping an eye on, especially as they tend to trickle in over the course of the month.

The Ghost Of Gaming Future [Write the Game via Blogs of the Roundtable/Man Bytes Blog]

Unsurprisingly, multiplayer gaming is a big trend — big enough to get a whole essay devoted to it. Luben looks at a number of issues and (future?) developments in the multiplayer arena. Of particular interest was his discussion of how to create a satisfying experience for veterans and newcomers alike:

Online gaming is sometimes like a jungle. Anonymity, coupled with an absence of regulation or any real consequences, tends to encourage all of the excesses of behaviour characteristic of humanity. If multiplayer gaming is to become a mode of play accepted by all, it will have to become more civilised in the process.

Design solutions to such behaviour problems are not so obvious. On Xbox Live, Microsoft allows players to rate each other, but this is effective only against the most blatant kinds of abuse. Another possibility lies in developing games that are reliant on cooperation, rather than on having the players confront one another.

Lastly, games should feature ranking systems only if they target hardcore gamers. Only these players really care about leaderboards. Experience has shown that ranking mechanisms tend to incite the most aggressive and least honest of players to cheat and take advantage of all of the exploitable quirks present in a game.

I’m looking forward to his next installment of the megatrends series, but until that comes out, part three is worth a read if you’re interested in some of the issues facing multiplayer gaming — both now and in the future. Luben has some nice observations about the state of things currently and some potential solutions to the problematic elements.

The Megatrends of Game Design, Part 3 [Gamasutra]

“As an industry, we’re in denial about the problems with retail,” Braben argued, citing a common myth that online distribution will become the norm in the coming generation.

“Retail is killing the longevity of our titles,” he said, with the massive used game market contributing to the problem. “The industry sees none of this” when it comes to preowned sales.

Meanwhile, the retail film industry puts its new films front and centre, and the stores in which movies are sold are often more attractive and inviting than game stores.

“What’s worse, if you ask for a new release, they’ll offer you a used one, and it’s not even much cheaper,” said Braben. “What it’s doing as an industry, means the long tail, which is what games rely on, is going to go away. And relying on online is killing ourselves.”

Braben suggested selling higher-priced copies of games to rental stores, then lowering the prices of not-for-resale copies — thus making new games more affordable for players, while introducing additional revenue streams for rentals.

“We can add value for people who have actually bought the game,” he said — designers should come up with additional content that rewards those who buy games new.

Well, I’m not sure if his suggestions are necessarily going to fix things (certainly won’t make it any easier on retailers), but Braben sounds pretty passionate and inflamed about a lot of these topics. It’s a quick and pretty interesting read, even if you don’t agree with his solutions.

MIGS: Frontier’s Braben On Retailers ‘Killing The Longevity’ Of Games [Gamasutra]

Over at the Escapist, they’re taking a look at the future of gaming — Hal Halpin, president of the Entertainment Consumers Association, looks at a number of ‘maybe, maybe not’ predictions with his own take. Ranging from the mundane (’Game prices will go down!’) to the political (’Things will get better once gamers become politicians!’) to the industry-focused (’Publishing structure is stuck in a rut and won’t change!’). It’s a fun read with some good points on the present and future directions of the gaming industry. On the publishing structure, Halpin has this to say:

… Developers too often aspire to be CEOs and convince themselves that they have the acumen to handle it. They rarely do. Great developers are great artists, not suits. There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but by and large rising developers would do far better to hire an experienced executive team and check their egos at the door. That, or merge with equally talented, like-minded firms where they should still hire the aforementioned suits. I foresee the consolidation in our business similar to that of the film industry. Several publishers will percolate up to be “the majors”, a few will be “mini majors” and specialise in niche markets and genres, and there’ll be a whole culture of indie developers – far more robust than today’s landscape – many of whom will be inspired to their careers by user-created content. Timeline for paradigm shift: three to five years.

I’m not sure consolidation of the film industry is a good example, since it took some concerted effort on the part of the major studios and successfully stamped out the little whipper snappers for decades, but the idea of a more robust indie scene is a nice one. Not a terribly long essay, but worth a read through.

The Crystal Ball [The Escapist]