Analyst Slashes DJ Hero Sales Projections

Activision's DJ Hero hits store shelves tomorrow, and it might linger there a bit longer than expected as Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz drops sales projections for the rhythm game by more than 50 per cent.

Will hype, demo booths and the Hero brand be enough to make DJ Hero a smash hit? Perhaps not, if Cowen and Company's projections are accurate. The company recently conducted a survey of online retailers regarding Activision's DJ game, and the results weren't as impressive as Activision may have hoped.

"On DJ Hero, despite some recent positive comments from company management about pre-orders, we remain very cautious about the title's prospects at launch," he noted. "A survey of online retailers indicates a demand profile that is well below what we would have expected to see just a few days before launch for a title that was destined to be a big (or even modest) hit. As a result, we are reducing our estimate for DJ Hero Q4 US unit sales from 1.6 million to 600,000, and we are reducing our first year estimate from 2.5 million to 950,000."

Creutz still believes that DJ Hero will eventually be a huge success, but expects it to do so over the course of several sequels.

These numbers make sense to me. While Guitar Hero and Rock Band have the benefit of recognisable instruments and music, DJ Hero consists of mashups of popular songs performed using a device that not a lot of consumers are familiar with. Just tally up how many times you've seen someone play imaginary guitars or drums or sing into a fake microphone versus how often you see someone air turn-tabling.

Analyst: DJ Hero Pre-Order Activity Weak [Edge]


Comments

    Derp,

    "These numbers make sense to me. While Guitar Hero and Rock Band have the benefit of recognisable instruments and music, DJ Hero consists of mashups of popular songs performed using a device that not a lot of consumers are familiar with. Just tally up how many times you’ve seen someone play imaginary guitars or drums or sing into a fake microphone versus how often you see someone air turn-tabling."

    That's a dumb reason to base an analysis.

      "That's a dumb reason to base an analysis."

      Not really. As far as instruments go, a turntable isn't nearly as well recognised as a guitar or a microphone, and this equals a greatly reduced target audience.

        The generation the game is marketed to know what turntables are, so I think this point is moot.

        Furthermore, I've seen people air turntable.

        Also a point to remember; Guitar Hero wasn't the runaway mainstream success it is today when it launched. I don't like the way it suggests sequels are needed (too many gh sequels!), but it will undoubtedly pick up momentum just the same.

          It's Activision. There'll be sequels whether they're needed or not.

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