Right now, the only people who have access to Microsoft's Kinect development tools are larger, established studios. Microsoft is trying to expand that group to include indie developers, though the emphasis at this stage is still on "trying".
"When [the indie]community will light up, we don't have a date lined up yet" Microsoft's Phil Spencer told IGN, who had asked about a timeline for indie development on Kinect. "It's not that I'm hiding it from you I just don't know. But getting a broad set of developers supporting our platform at all levels is important to our success. It's in our plan to make that happen. We're working with some universities now, we did a Kinect course down at USC last spring where we had students in their computer science and film schools build some stuff. It was great to see the stuff they came up with. We're going to continue to push there."
"I'm trying to answer your question specifically about how far away we are. I think we're close...when you can simply drop the things in and go away and it works perfectly, then you're ready. And I think we're close given we're so close to shipping."
Awfully long answer to a seemingly simple question, but he says "close" enough time at the end there to have people feeling optimistic.