Predictions For 2016's Winners And Losers Of The New Console Generation

Predictions For 2016's Winners and Losers Of The New Console Generation

Bookmark this post and re-check it in 2016. Eminently quotable games business analyst Michael Pachter doesn't just host fun shows on GameTrailers. He crunches numbers, gives stock advice and forecasts the future of the gaming industry. Today, he revealed his mathematical model's predictions for the new console generation.

The following is from an e-mail he sent today to investors, reporters and other folks who need to know this kind of thing:

  • We expect Sony's and Microsoft's new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo's Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.
  • Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $US399.99 at launch to $US299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $US499.99 at launch to $US349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $US59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U. Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast.

We shall see, we shall see...


Comments

    Now compare it with how inaccurate his predictions were for the generation just gone (he predicted the Wii in last place, and iirc a graph he produced even predicted the Wii reducing its total sales in one year). His opinion is not one to rely on or even trust.

      You're not supposed to trust opinions. You take them, with additional facts and make your own. As you have done. ;)

    Trusting anything Pachter has to say would be a mistake, he once said about the 3ds:

    “their handheld business can’t save them in the face of cannibalization from smartphones and tablets.”

    http://www.vg247.com/2013/02/18/pachter-deems-wii-u-a-mistake-nintendo-cant-recover-from/

    Also the Wii U, while not a great seller for Nintendo as the Wii was, the Wii U has around 5 million sold world wide so far (we will get exact figures in a few days from now) and the sales are going up each week / month, just this past week Nintendo hit just over 100,000 units sold in Japan for the week, only to be beaten by the 3ds LL (You know the console Pachter said can't save Nintendo) and the outlook software wise for 2014 is very good.

    For Nintendo to sell under 20 million by 2016 something has to go wrong and i just cannot see that happening, they have addressed why the Wii U was not selling (lack of software) and unless they drop the ball and there is like a six month drought without any games, i cannot see how the Wii U wont keep selling well.

    And for those that think the lack of third party support is the problem, then why is the Wii U currently selling so well, with that lack of third party support.

      Pachter has never said he's right, he makes this distinction constantly, that he's looking at the numbers and he's telling you where things are headed. He's not even coming close to saying it's definite. Chill, don't be a dick. There's a reason this guy makes people money and the only problem here is that people don't seem to actually know what his job is.

        Pachter has never said he's right, he makes this distinction constantly

        That's because he is never right (from all the quotes i have seen of his predictions, there has been none that have come true)

        that he's looking at the numbers and he's telling you where things are headed

        Like the 3ds, tell me how many people do you think he would have discouraged from investing in Nintendo's stock when the 3ds came out (Because it was doomed to failure due to the rise of mobile / tablet gaming)

        Chill, don't be a dick.

        How am i being a dick? i am just calling him out on erroneous predictions, he does not come out and say we will see how things go because things arn't looking so good at the moment, he says stuff like.

        their handheld business can’t save them in the face of cannibalization from smartphones and tablets.

        Which is flat out wrong, he could have said something along the lines of, "The console just came out, it's not doing to well atm, don't invest your money just yet, lets see how things go in the proceeding months"

        There's a reason this guy makes people money and the only problem here is that people don't seem to actually know what his job is.

        He might make people money in other markets besides the Video Game market, but from what i have seen people would only loose money from following his advice on his predictions on the games industry.

    This is what constitutes a prediction now? Well I predict that in 2016 the sun with still shine, of course this prediction is based on the assumption that Aliens don't come and blow it up, which will effect my prediction by some measure.

    I just got a Wii U and it is great. I think the Wii U will outdo its predictions.
    It is a great machine, it even controls my TV using the game pad just like the Xbox One (without lame voice stuff) - another 20 must have games and at its price and I think most big kids like myself will get one even if a PC or PS4 for eg is there main machine.

    Don't be alarmed comments section, I'm from the future!

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