Hey, you just won a Counterstrike: Global Offensive match! Time to shell out a few bucks, unlock that weapon case and see what's inside, right? Not so fast! You might be better off just buying that ultra-rare knife in the in-game store. Here's proof.
In the video above, game design commentator and YouTuber 3kliksphilip shows off a simulator he made that shows off how much money you can potentially spend try to randomly acquire one of the elite weapon rewards in the game. At 1:53 in the video, the simulation spends more than $US300 for a version of AK-47 that tops out at about $US232 on the Steam Community Market.
By the time the much-desired Karambit knife shows up in an unlocked case, $US1484.04 of imaginary player cash has been spent. That's more than three times the current top price of $US400.
The moral of the story? You're probably better off buying from your fellow players. It will cost less.