This Week In The Business: It's Not Looking Good For The Xbox One

"Really this could be a final nail in the coffin for Xbox One now that Microsoft has told consumers to wait until 2017 [for Scorpio]. Sony will have the powerful system with VR now and a well-executed plan that leaves consumers no reason to wait." — DFC Intelligence's David Cole says PlayStation 4 Pro offers an all-around compelling proposition for gamers.

Elsewhere in the business of gaming this week...

STAT | 72 per cent — The percentage of smelters and refiners in Nintendo's supply chain that the company has certified are not financing the recruiting and use of child soldiers, kidnappings, mass rape, murder and sexual slavery. That's up from 47 per cent the previous year.

QUOTE | "We have this conversation all the time: 'Well, every [release] window looks like shit, so pick one.'" — Steve Escalante, general manager of indie publisher Versus Evil, on the increasingly crowded marketplace. When the company published Banner Saga in 2014, it shared the launch month with 73 other games. This year's Banner Saga 2 launched against nearly 400 titles.

QUOTE | "It's weird to say this, but there aren't enough quality developers out there. I don't think most game developers are under the right mindset when they're creating their video games, not just their first but after many games. You still see game developers making the game mistakes with the same kind of incorrect motive for making games." — Zhenghua Yang of indie publisher Serenity Forge suggests the market for the kinds of games he wants to publish is far from saturated.

QUOTE | "Pokémon GO is a real game-changer. I'm very interested in the fact that it has the potential to really change the way people move, literally." — Sony CEO Kaz Hirai, suggesting that augmented reality will become a core aspect of Sony's mobile efforts.

QUOTE | "It appears to us that this is a big enough hammer that it could be used to hit all but the most bland of YouTube videos" — The Internet Creators Guild responds to a YouTube decision removing monetisation from videos with inappropriate or controversial content.

QUOTE | "[As a platform holder] I think, personally, that if you're not hungry — if you're not out there, chasing things, you're not doing a very good job." — [email protected] head Chris Charla during a recent trip where he pitched the Xbox One and Windows 10 platforms to Japanese indie developers.

QUOTE | "There will always be some concerns about us publishing a title outside of our usual comfort zone may be preventing us from publishing something else that some of our fans may want or expect." — XSEED CEO Ken Berry explains the tightrope a niche publisher must walk when looking to expand its audience beyond its core fanbase.

QUOTE | "My biggest nightmare is waking up and realising we've not failed in a year." — Supercell CEO Ilkka Paananen says the Clash Royale studio tries to create an environment where people feel safe enough to try things that don't always work.

QUOTE | "The majority of our production resources are spent on building the foundation for multiple gameplay and growth lines that keep 'Regulars' playing for years. Without these vectors in the game at launch, a product will inevitably become victim to the sharp fall-off in engagement and retention we've seen time and time again." — Kabam CEO Kevin Chou describes the dreaded "shark fin" effect that impacted mobile games like Fallout Shelter.

QUOTE | "VR provides the opportunity for developers, platform providers and hardware manufacturers to gather significant amounts of very rich data about their users." — Tech specialists Daniel Tozer and Donald Mee from law firm Harbottle & Lewis lay out new legal concerns VR devs and hardware makers will need to consider.


Comments

    Funny how these 'analysts' are often wrong. What makes them analysts anyway? Anyone who knows half a thing about a particular subject matter and has an opinion is an analyst.
    MS might slump in sales over the next year, however things will change dramatically.

    It was also predicted that the announcement of the One S would cause the One S fail miserably, yet Xbox has outsold Sony after the announcement (even before the updated console was released). Take into account the PS4 is a fairly petty and disjointed/confusing upgrade that is missing the 4K player the Xbox One S already has, things just get worse for Sony.

    Xbox will be just fine and will come out swinging next year with the time MS have to capitalise on the Pro's clear faults.

      How did you arrive at that?

      Last I checked Xbox sold over 20 million units to PS4s 40 million units.

        Citation may be needed on some of that but I believe hes talking about MS outselling PS last month. Not as a whole.

          Aaahhh, makes sense.

          It helps in blind context I suppose, but from a business standpoint it's not ideal.
          (Not going to prepare its coffin, but won't pretend it's not tense times at MS's console depts)

          Anyway, things are going to get interesting over the coming months.

            Yeah reports indicated that Xbox has outsold PS4 in the past 2 months. The first month was when the S wasn't even out, and the 2nd month was when NMS came out.
            I wouldn't say the next year is dire for MS. The company is huge, and compared to others (like Sony), can manage a temporary loss far better.
            I'm sure they are prepared for a temporary dry spout, however when Scorpio arrives, it was rain and pour.
            Not many people have confidence in the Pro either...my massive PS fanboy of a friend is considering the S over the Pro. I think (in terms of sales), it will be a fair-ish playing field...roughly speaking.

              You just sound like a massive MS fanboy bud... We will have a much better idea when the Pro drops next week as to how the mid-cycle consoles perform side-by-side.

              Your comment about it "raining" when the Scorpio arrives, you have no idea as to the price-point for this machine. It could be WAY out of buyer's price range, MS have mentioned the console will be for the extreme game enthusiasts. The only reason I'm purchasing a Pro is because EB Games offer a cash-back for your old PS4 ($200AUD), making the mid-cycle purchase a much softer blow to the wallet. I don't even own a 4K TV and I'm still getting one! I know it lacks a 4K ultra Blu-ray player, but that's not the reason I'd be buying it and to be quite honest, i'd be looking to buy a One S in the future when it drops below $300 for a cheap 4K Ultra Bluray player, and that's I'm afraid the reason for most purchases of this product, doing the old PS3 Bluray dance... enjoy those sales while they last.

              Last edited 02/11/16 4:36 pm

      Analysts, are the same people who have said that the Saturn and PS1 will be the last consoles. That the DS isn't what people want in a handheld and likely to fail, That the PS3/X360 will be the last generation of consoles, That everyone will love the Vita and it will overtake Nintendo's Handheld in record time. Oh and a real good one. That One Direction will be bigger than the Beatles. That last one is a great one, if he's right everybody will be amazed by him, if he's wrong 99.99% of people will forget it was ever said.

      Analysts guess and speculate based on what I don't know. But while I don't know what the PS6 will be, I'm fairly confident that it will exist.

        My guess is that analysts are just businessmen who look at things on the outset and know nothing about gaming - "Sony have just released a more powerful console, and Xbox won't have one for over a year. Therefore Xbox is screwed". Any casual moron can come to a conclusion based on a vague analysis like that.
        I doubt the guy took notice of the negative reception the Pro has garnered and the positive reception MS has been making.

        Analysts also said the One S would be a bad idea, yet it's doing very well.

        Don't believe these people.

          Kind of my point that especially in the gaming space these guys are wrong a lot of the time.

      Xbox just needs some good exclusives. Something to rival Horizon Zero Dawn, Days Gone, The Last Guardian, Death Stranding, Detroit: Become Human, God of War, Gravity Rush 2, Hellblade, Ni No Kuni 2, Persona 5 and many other headliners. Its list of exclusives looks pretty shaky: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_video_game_exclusives_(eighth_generation)

    I'd probably pre order a pspro if it had a hd bluray drive. Instead I've got no interest. You should be trying to whore all my TV consumption in one device, easily able to switch from watching media to gaming media. Sony just aren't interested.

    Yes, Xbox are screwed. They have a $399AUD 4K player while there's zero competition (well, the exact-price competition doesn't include one), and have six months plus to come out with a machine that'll have 4K bluray AND knock the socks off PS4Pro visuals.

      Fanboy or just extremely optimistic? And dont tell me im a sony stooge, i own both (though i will have to blow the dust off it once gears 4 comes out!)

      I don't understand what you're saying...

        Something with an incredibly sarcastic tone :P

    Yet isn't the Pro slightly lesser than the Xbox One S? Doesn't that bode poor for the PS4?

      i thought out of ms, nintendo and sony it was sony who were having financial difficulties too. not from their gaming division but wasn't the rest of the company struggling last year and selling assets?

        They did a lot of downsizing in terms of selling off non-performing assets. As a consequence, Sony actually turned around its financial performance in recent times, but is still sailing somewhat close to the wind. Its mobile division is dragging it down pretty significantly but its game and network services division is going strong at the moment (as you point out).

    I dont think the absence if a 4k blu ray player is such a big deal. It can still stream 4k, play at 4k res and honestly idk many ppl buying discs anymore, blu ray, 4k, dvd or whatever.

    So there's still 28% of smelters and refiners in Nintendo's supply chain where kidnapping, rape, muder, and sex slavery may still exist. Don't you dare be fucking proud of that Nintendo.

      I think it means that there's 28% where they can't say for sure one way or another.

    Microsoft should just buy Sony. They could probably search the couches in the executive lounge and come up with enough money to force it to happen.

      I don't think Sony would be a good purchase to be honest. Yes, it has some attractive assets but the company itself is riddled with debt and has several divisions that are either mediocre or dragging the company down. MS would just want the game and network services division, but couldn't just buy that without making a move on the company as a whole.

    Ok, so there's a lack of HD blu ray player and it's not native 4K but...they say it's basically 90% the same with some creative upscaling magic. Honestly, it might be too little too late for Scorpio next year. Their catch cry being "look how powerful it is!!", which was what the PS3 was all about when playing catch up with the 360. Are we still on about "raw power"? Do we still care? I guess they're thinking long term which is probably smart. It's a marathon not a sprint. Either way, competition is good for consumers.

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