Odds Of Beating A Particularly Devious Mario Maker Level Are 1 In 7.5 Million

Screenshot: Hiddencasual, Twitch

There have been over two million attempts to beat a Mario Maker level called Lucky Draw, and seemingly all of them have failed because, well, they just haven’t gotten lucky enough yet.

As first reported by Patrick Klepek over at Vice Games, Lucky Draw is a Super Mario Maker level that has rarely, if ever, been beaten despite millions of attempts.

That’s because Lucky Draw, made by a Mario Maker creator named Phenotype, is part of a genre of Mario Maker level that’s governed entirely by a random number generator (RNG).

Players can’t actually control Mario in Lucky Draw. The level consists of a bridge of blocks over a pit of lava that Mario is automatically moved across. If the the magikoopas above him create anything that can fall on the P blocks below them, the plumber will meet a fiery end.

Instead, the only way to safely traverse the hazard is for each magikoopa to spawn coins, since falling coins don’t trigger the P blocks and in turn make the bridge disappear.


All players can do during this is watch and hope for the best. If everything goes their way, Mario will safely make it to the other side, but so far that’s never happened. Based on all the factors at play, the odds of being successful are approximately one in 7.5 million according to user sass253 who recently posted their work on the MarioMaker subreddit.

Since Nintendo requires creators to beat any level they submit, the consensus is that Lucky Draw isn’t impossible. Just extremely improbable.

The site that tracks Mario Maker level attempts, indicates that it has been cleared 13 times in 2,667,110 attempts. As Klepek reports, there’s no video proof for those clears and a top Mario Maker streamer who goes by the name Jaku is sceptical due to the suspicious finish time and the low amount of deaths by the two players involved. As more and more players try it though, maybe someone will finally get lucky, and also be live-streaming it.


Comments

    The description is a bit off. What activates the P-switches are munchers hidden in music blocks and anything that presses down on those music blocks, including coins, will free the munchers. The thing about coins is that, of all the stuff that Magikoopas can transform out of a block, they are the only ones that stop moving after the initial release.

    So a block that randomly transforms into a coin (out of 7 different possible transformations) and moves to the right instead of to the left--onto the music block-- (speculated but not confirmed a 50/50% chance) will not kill Mario. This has to happen 6 times in a row, giving out the minuscule probability mentioned in the title.

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